That would also average out to around $614 million domestic, or right between Incredibles 2 ($609 million) and The Last Jedi ($620 million). Considering the crowded marketplace, the variables (VOD, streaming, online viral gifs of your favorite scenes, etc.) that limit repeat viewing and the fact that Star Wars is now merely one massive franchise in a sea of huge franchises, a $1.684 billion cume is not remotely the bar for success.įor reference, the “worst case scenario” guestimate ($770 million) and the “best case scenario” guestimate ($1.684 billion) averages out to around $1.227 billion worldwide. Since it’s Christmas and there’s room for everyone, a best-case-scenario Rise of Skywalker doesn’t have to mean underperformances for Cats and Jumanji: The Next Level. That seems, without getting into “Bigger than Endgame!” hyperbole, like a “realistic” optimistic projection. Combined with $800 million domestic, that would be $1.684 billion worldwide, or safely above Jurassic World ($1.671 billion in 2015) and The Lion King (around $1.64 billion). The optimistic overseas boost, if we’re trying to be plausible, would probably be close to The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part II (+24% from Breaking Dawn Part I) or The Return of the King (+21% from The Two Towers).Ī 24% jump would be $884 million overseas. Both would put it between The Lion King and Avengers: Endgame for the year. A 29% domestic jump for The Rise of Skywalker gets it to $799.8 million domestic, while a 20% jump gets it to $745 million. That over/under 21% domestic jump seems plausible, if only because it’s close to the over/under 29% jumps for Avengers: Endgame ($878 million versus $679 million for Infinity War) and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II ($381 million from $296 million, albeit with a “new” 3-D conversion). Nonetheless, expect a final gross right between Last Jedi ($620 million domestic and $1.332.5 billion worldwide) and The Force Awakens ($937 million/$2.068 billion). Even Endgame, with that 70% jump in China, “only” rose 41% from Infinity War’s $1.369 billion overseas gross. If that seems extreme, especially on the overseas side, it probably is. If history follows suit, then The Rise of Skywalker will rise around 20-22% domestic and around 35% overseas from The Last Jedi. Lost in much of the handwringing two years ago over The Last Jedi was the mere fact that it fell about as much from The Force Awakens (-34% domestic and -37% overseas) as did The Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones from Star Wars and The Phantom Menace. Thus, assuming everything goes right and then some, what kind of numbers are we looking at here? Its competition, relatively speaking, is received as “just for kids” while it is deemed the unmitigated king of the mountain. It benefits from the uninterrupted holiday blitz and having its biggest competition open right before or concurrently with it allows it to maintain momentum comparative to a conventional December biggie. It gets a finale bump in North America and overseas on par with a Star Wars threequel or The Return of the King (+10% domestic and +21% overseas from Two Towers). Okay, under this “optimistic” projection, The Rise of Skywalker is well-reviewed and well-received, with plenty of “viral” moments that translates into repeat business at least during the holidays.
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